Thursday, 29 December 2011

My Predictions for 2011: Two Out of Three Ain't Bad

A year ago, on 31 December 2010, I blogged three Predictions for 2011:

1. "The pound ... at the end of the year will be roughly where it is now (today: 1.16 - 1.17 euros to the pound)"

RESULT: A near miss. Sterling stayed in that band for most of the year until lack of decisive action by eurozone leaders strengthened sterling, which ends the year at 1.19 as of Friday 30.12.11 - a gain of 2.72% over the year. The gain hardly suggests that the markets think the eurozone crisis that much worse than the sterlingzone crisis. In reality, what happens in the UK is inter-dependent with what happens in the rest of the Europe.

2. "Voters will say 'No' to electoral reform" in the AV referendum

RESULT: A hit. The prediction was made at a time when there seemed to be support for electoral reform so I had to give reasons for my prediction - go to the 31 December 2010 Blog to find them

3. "Dr Liam Fox will not be Secretary of State for Defence by the end of 2011"

RESULT: A hit - and I think I may have been the only Blogger to predict this outcome. (I should have put money on it).
I had read press reports about Dr Fox's conduct in office which suggested to me that he was pursuing his own agenda in a way unacceptable for someone in a sensitive post, even in these relaxed Coalition times.

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