The UK Government is planning two big Circuses for 2012: the Queen's Jubilee and the Olympics. To encourage celebrations for the former, public services will shut down for two days. To ensure that the latter runs smoothly, the army will be on duty.
Will it all go well, like 2011's Tory-boosting Royal Wedding, or will there be problems? Here is scope for a simple Either-Or prediction.
I believe that the future is like the past: since the Royal Wedding went well (my contribution was to leave the country), then so should the Jubilee and the Olympics.
But 2011 also saw urban rioting during the school summer holidays.
I think we will see more urban riots in 2012. The state media will be focussed North Korea-style on ensuring compulsory Joy for the Jubilee and the Olympics and will push into the background reporting of the 2012 recession, the effects of the Cameron government's austerity programme, the corrupt management of Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs [which may go to Court it seems], and so on. Disorder on the streets is one likely effect of this dissociation between social reality and media cheer-leading. None of the Cameron government's initiatives is really going to deal with the issue of young urban NEETs [ Not in Education, Employment or Training].
When will the disorder occur? August is a wicked month. School holidays and light evenings. The trigger? You can usually rely on the Metropolitan Police.
Me? I will be out of the country for both the Jubilee and the Olympics.