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Monday, 25 May 2015

EU Referendum? It's a No Brainer ...

Back in December 2010, my guess was that UK voters would say No to the offer of Electoral Reform in the Referendum scheduled for May 2011. And they did - now, of course, they are complaining again about the Unfairness of the system they so recently voted to keep.

On 3 May 2015 I reckoned, against all the Opinion Polls, that the General Election would return Mr Cameron as Prime Minister.

British voters - or, at least, the English ones who matter most: the home owners and the elderly - are cautious and lacking in self-confidence. They don't like political change, pretty much for the same reason that they insure the contents of their homes. They are afraid of a world they don't understand. Only when times are already good will they contemplate change. When the economic winds, or the winds from Russia, are chilly they will sit tight.

So when it comes to the Referendum on whether Britain should stay in the European Union, these shy voters will vote to stay In. Better the Devil you know. And since there are many millions of these voters:

My Prediction is that the UKs Referendum on whether the country should stay in the EU will result in a Yes vote to remaining a member. This despite the exclusion of 16 - 17 years olds whose future is much more at stake than mine or literally anyone who reads The Daily Express.

(Having failed to place what would have been a lucrative bet on Mr Cameron, I thought I might place an early bet on the Referendum - but I discover that the bookies have already reached the same conclusion as me)

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