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Saturday, 25 June 2016

The Dead Souls of Clacton - fighting back from BREXIT

The extraordinary thing is this: Mr Cameron decided to entrust the long-term future of the United Kingdom to an Either-Or vote which did not require the Leavers to obtain more than a simple majority on one wet day in June. In many if not most countries, major constitutional changes require more than a simple majority -  two thirds or even three quarters.

Worse, he knew that votes are now swung by the UK's ageing - and let's face it - relatively uneducated, relatively ill-informed and sometimes senile and stupid electoral gerontocracy. It was a straight invitation to a suicide vote. After consulting The Daily Express, the dead souls of Clacton obliged.

Worse still, since a very large majority of MPs are opposed to the choice of the voters of Clacton, any new Prime Minister, happy to trigger clause 50, will have to call a General Election in order to try to get a more malleable House of Commons. It will be full of crooks, idiots and fascists. No wonder Boris Johnson looks devastated by his victory. It's not the outcome he wanted.

Meanwhile, in the months ahead, the economy will go into recession as people stop spending and businesses avoid decisions and government departments put everything on hold.  Only Scotland may get its act together and decide to have no part in the self-immolation of England and Wales. A charm offensive in Ireland might even persuade those in the North that re-unification is the only way out of catastrophe. London might revolt.

And maybe the worst miscalculation of all, the Leavers simply assumed that those in the rest of Europe would simply roll-over and agree to whatever combination of Opt - Outs and Opt - Ins we picked for ourselves this time round.It's already clear. Maybe they won't. Spain is already eyeing Gibraltar - and no one, no one (including the United States) would come to our aid if they decided to take it. Remember Suez.

The most obvious next move is for Parliament to vote by at least a two thirds majority that it does not accept the outcome of the Referendum and thereby put a stop to the damage which even a few months’ of uncertainty – as we wait for a fresh and chaotic General Election – will cause. It can then order a second Referendum in which the threshold for major constitutional change will be set at two thirds.

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